Understanding the Basics of DFS Ownership Projections
Ownership projections in DFS can be one of the essential factors if you will participate in it successfully. With more and more people deciding to play daily fantasy sports (DFS), you need to dig deeper to see where you can find an edge over your competition.
The fantasy sports market is currently worth $20 billion. It is expected to increase to $48 billion in the next six years.
What this tells you is that DFS is only going to grow. With that in mind, you need to master DFS ownership projections to have a better chance of succeeding.
Read on to learn more!
Reviewing All Past Performances
The first thing you need to understand about DFS ownership projections is that past performance comes into play. This can be based on how the fighter performed in previous fights if they won or lost, their strengths and weaknesses, and how many people decided to add that fighter to their lineup.
This means that if a fighter has performed well recently and already had a high ownership percentage in DFS lineups, it could be safe to say that the fighter should have a high ownership projection for their next fight.
Once you have done this long enough, it should not be too difficult to spot what fighters should get the highest ownership projections.
What fighters are going to be in the main event? Has one fighter performed exceptionally well recently? Who gets a lot of publicity? Is a fight coming up projected to be a significant mismatch?
These are all things to consider. The reason for that depends on how you answer those questions could impact what fighters will be the most popular to pick from the next lineup card.
Understanding the Ownership Projection Column
Next to every fighter in a lineup optimizer, you should see a column that projects what percentage of people will have a particular fighter in their lineup. This is very important to follow because this tool can tell you what fighters experts believe will end up in the most DFS lineups that day.
If more people are predicted to have a particular fighter in their lineup, it should impact how you set your lineup. You see, in this type of fantasy sports betting, more than one person can use the same fighter in their lineup.
What does that mean? It means that if enough people use the same fighter in their lineup, that fighter is going to cancel out in a lot of people’s lineups.
As a result, you will not get the distance or the advantage you need to win against your competition. So, keep an eye on this expected ownership and see which fighters stand out here.
Something fundamental when it comes to setting a lineup here is figuring out which players have value. Knowing the ownership projection of each player can help you determine this.
The reason for this is if you expect one fighter to be put in almost everybody’s lineup, then it will not be a massive advantage for you if they have a big night. Yet, it could be a significant risk for you if they end up having a terrible night in the ring.
What you need to do is find a fighter that is considered a dark horse for the lineup card that night. An example could be someone that is only expected to be in 60% of the lineups that night versus the popular fighter that is expected to be in 95% of the lineups that night.
There could be various reasons why a fighter slips under the radar.
They could be in a fight that few people are interested in that night. Think about which fighters people are paying $125 per year to see.
There could be other fighters that simply have a dominant public image. A fighter could be coming off of a very bad fight. Or, the fighter could be going up against someone they match up very well against.
All these things matter, and it is up to you to determine what stands out during a fight.
Targeting the Ceiling
Finally, when it comes to ownership projections, you need to consider what each player’s ceiling is that day. Most lineup optimizers should have this projection available.
For those of you that are not familiar, the ceiling is the highest amount of points that a simulator believes a fighter will get that night. If you are competing in a large contest with thousands of entries, it could serve your best interests to go this route.
The reason for that is you are going with a lineup that has the potential to do great but may not be the most popular. What this means is that you are risking it all for possible peak performance.
This can be a good idea because it can help your lineup stand out, and in such a large contest, you will need as unique of a lineup as possible.
Dive Deeper Into Everything About DFS Ownership Projections Today
These are just a few of the things that you need to know about DFS ownership projections. You will want to evaluate past performances and remind yourself that they play into future ownership projections. Also, look for the players with the best value and target ones that look like they have a high ceiling.
Do you need more help predicting outcomes? Check out our DFS section.